Derek Dujardin

BILL COSBY: What are the odds that all 39 women are lying about you raping them? About 500 Octillion to 1.

In Uncategorized on May 27, 2015 at 9:00 am

Ever since Rolling Stimagesone magazine botched their article about rape on college campus, distractors and rape minimizers have plenty of fuel to point out that false rape accusations happen and happen frequently. Therefore, in their minds, we need to protect all those potentially innocent men out there from being falsely accused by vindictive women.

Yes, false allegations do happen, but it’s estimated to be only about 7 percent of the total reported rapes in United States. Let’s put that into perspective:

Only 32 percent all rapes are ever reported and that 98 percent of all rapists get away with it. In an related story, Bill Cosby wants to us to believe he is a victim of a rash of false allegations against him.

I am going to leave it to actor and writer Kurt Kalbfleisch to enlighten us by crunching some numbers in a piece he wrote for 2015 Inner Mission production of San MENding Monologues called “Forget These Women.”

Forget These Women

by Kurt Kalbfleisch

Greg: As activists, w11269706_10206389016341626_488226433_ne throw a lot of statistics out there.

Kurt: One in three.

Greg: Thirty-two percent.

Kurt: Every hundred and seven seconds.

Greg: Respectively, that’s the number of women world-wide who will be raped in their lifetime,

Kurt: the percentage of rapes that are reported in the U.S.,

Greg: and how often a rape occurs in America.

Kurt: But there are two statistics that we find particularly troubling, especially when you look at them together.

Greg: Ninety-eight percent, and two to eight percent.

Kurt: Ninety-eight percent of rapists will never be convicted.

Greg: Ninety-eight out of a hundred rapists will get away with it, scot free.

All: Ninety-eight.

Greg: And yet, only two to eight percent of rape reports are false. That’s world-wide.

Kurt: Two to eight percent. In Canada, it’s six percent.

Greg: In the United Kingdom, it’s eight percent.

Kurt: In the United States, it’s seven percent. What the hell, let’s just talk about this country. We’ll stick with seven percent.

Greg: Lucky number seven.

Kurt: One in fourteen.

Greg: So, if only one in fourteen reports of rape is false, how do we end up with ninety-eight percent of rapists walking free?

Both: Phylicia Rashad.

Kurt: Okay, of course it’s not all Phylicia Rashad’s fault that two hundred eighty-seven thousand two hundred and four rapists will not be convicted this year, but since she’s famous, she came forward to support Bill Cosby, and she should know better, we think her statements are illuminating.

Greg: Now, in case you haven’t been paying attention, there are currently thirty-nine women accusing Bill Cosby of sexual misconduct. Thirty-nine. We’ll talk more about that in a minute, but here’s what Phylicia Rashad said in Cosby’s defense: “Forget these women, this is about something else. This is about the obliteration of legacy.”

Kurt: Forget these women. To be fair, she later claimed she was misquoted, and that she had said, “This is not about the women…”

Greg: You say potato, I say

Both: bullshit.

Greg: All thirty-nine of Cosby’s accusers say that they struggled for years about coming forward. After all, this is a man who at one time was wealthy and powerful enough to make a serious offer to buy NBC. What Phylicia Rashad said touches on all the reasons anyone might shy away from reporting a rape: that an individual’s reputation or contributions to the community simultaneously makes him or her a target for accusations and incapable of committing sexual assault. That some people are too important to be held accountable. That the only reason a woman would make a rape accusation is because there’s some monetary or social gain to be had,

Kurt: or because she wants attention,

Greg: or because she’s lying.

Kurt: Here’s a statistic for you: The odds that all thirty-nine of Bill Cosby’s accusers are lying are one in five hundred octillion. That’s forty-four zeroes.

Greg: Let me put that another way: If one in fourteen rape accusations are not actually rape, that leaves thirty-six women who are telling the truth about what Bill Cosby did to them.

Kurt: And yet there are people, like Phylicia Rashad, who insist that we should give Cosby the benefit of the doubt.

Greg: Forget Phylicia Rashad. A rape accusation is always about the accuser. Fourteen out fourteen times. And it should be taken seriously, fourteen out of fourteen times, because something traumatic has happened to them and coming forward is guaranteed to be yet another traumatic experience.

Kurt: “What were you wearing?

Greg: Why were you there?

Kurt: Why didn’t you scream?

Greg: Why didn’t you use your teeth?

Kurt: Why did you accept that pill?

Greg: Why didn’t you tell someone before?

Kurt: Why did you keep seeing him?”

Greg: All while the accused gets the right to remain silent. It’s no wonder that only thirty-two percent of rapes get reported.

Kurt: But make no mistake, fourteen out of fourteen times, something happened. Thirteen out of fourteen times, that something fits the legal definition of rape, and yet the prevailing opinion in America today is that most accusers are lying. The police continue to believe that most accusers are lying. Prosecutors continue to believe that most accusers are lying. People…family, friends, colleagues, social media contacts…continue to believe that most accusers are lying.

Greg: Because they need to.

Kurt: Many men need to believe it because they recognize themselves and their actions in the accusations. Aggressive sexual behavior has, for generations, gotten a pass. It’s been held up as the model for masculinity. You can see it in how we talk about women: “Man, I’d like to knock me off a piece of that!” We’re taught to be masculine,

Greg: always masculine,

Kurt: to compete to be the most masculine, and that the way to prove it is to accuse other men of being feminine.

Greg: As if femininity is wrong.

Kurt: Not just wrong for a man,

Greg: but wrong,

Kurt: less than,

Greg: worthy of contempt.

Kurt: Boys are taught that girls always resist sex, even when they want it.

Greg: And good girls don’t want it.

Kurt: Ever. So you have to convince them, to overcome their defenses. We grow up with the idea that it’s healthy to struggle to get laid,

Greg: that it’s natural to have to overcome a woman’s resistance,

Kurt: and that real men do so with ease. If most accusers are telling the truth, then

Both: how many more of us are rapists?

Greg: Women need to believe that accusers are lying, too, because if an accuser is telling the truth, then they didn’t break the rules of behavior. If an accuser broke the rules, if she got raped because she didn’t do all the things women are supposed to do to avoid being raped, then, well, she’s obviously a slut and it can’t happen to me because I’m a good girl.

Kurt: And if she did do everything right and she still got raped, then she has to be lying because if she isn’t, how can any woman feel safe?

Greg: The tragedy here is that as a society, we’re so desperate for the illusion of safety that we’re willing to let ninety-eight out of hundred rapists go free.

Kurt: Now, we’re not suggesting that all women who report rape are telling the truth.

Greg: We’re also not suggesting that we should, for one second, assume that anyone is guilty-until-proven-innocent.

Kurt: We are saying that we should remember that when anyone reports being raped, they’re almost certainly reliving a traumatic event in their lives while dealing with the additional trauma of public scrutiny. We’re saying that our usual response to an accusation of rape is out of balance.

Greg: We’re saying that there needs to be a change.

Kurt: We give the accused the benefit of the doubt, automatically.

Greg: It’s time we give the same benefit to the accuser.

Kurt: Automatically.

Greg: Fourteen out of fourteen times.

Kurt: Unless we do, we can forget the truth.

  1. Reblogged this on Abstractist's Weblog and commented:
    This is powerful. I felt it should go viral.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Thank you! Kurt K is great writer and a gem of a man.


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